Palm Pre is definitely the best thing to come out of Palm. And it appears that the Pre is a great phone at least judging from the reviews that appeared today (Pogue, Mossberg). The transfusion of Apple's DNA into Palm has transformed Palm to a company that gets it. And this is good. The iPhone needs some strong competition in order to avoid stagnation. And all previous competition has been absolutely pathetic. But ultimate market success is not determined by hardware and software comparisons. And there is something in Palm's strategy that I find completely inane.
The Palm Pre will be available initially only through Sprint in a CDMA version and then 6 months later by Verizon in the GSM version. Here is my guess on what will happen and why this will prove to be disastrous for the Pre.
People with Sprint contracts who want to stay with Sprint will buy the Pre. Everybody else will wait for the Verizon version. This means that initially Pre's sales will not be spectacular. Then the press will call the Pre a failure because for the press (and even more for the internet) something is either a runaway success or a failure. This will discourage (a) developers from writing applications for WebOS and (b) people from buying the Pre when it becomes available through Verizon (because nobody wants to buy a 6 months old failure). By the way, even now reviews portray the Pre as the underdog that tries to go against iPhone's dominance. This is great for the iPhone and disastrous for the Pre. After all, people root for the underdog only when their money is not at stake.
It would be much better for Palm if the fact that the Pre will be available for Verizon was not announced. At least then there would be a reasonable chance that people would switch to Sprint in order to get a Pre. Now this is just not going to happen.